I recently reread, or more accurately re-skimmed, Waltz’ Man, The State, and War to refresh myself on his three “images” for foreign policy theory. The three images all try to explain the cause of war, but from different perspectives. Somehow, Donald Trump manages to make war more likely across all three.
His distaste for international organizations makes the world more dangerous through his actions from the perspective of the third image (the international order image) and if he turns America into an illiberal democracy and encourages autocracies around the globe, he makes the world more dangerous from the perspective of the second image (the domestic politics image).
But we neglected the most important way Trump makes the world dangerous:
Donald Trump is a war hawk.
Waltz started with the “first image”, the personalities of leaders around the globe, because when most people try to answer, “Why does war happen?” they usually respond, “Well, people of course.” This is part of a grand historical tradition of the “great men of history” who, usually, in these tellings, through exceptional charisma or character or ineptitude, make things happen in history.
Take World War II. Another great power war would probably have happened at some point. Without the constraints of the liberal world order and the threat of nukes, what would have stopped it? But when it happened specifically in the late 1930s, well, Adolf Hitler deserves the blame. Hitler wrote about the glory and power of Germany, talked about restoring an empire, and believed in the idea of “Anschluss”, or the uniting of the German homeland. He talked like a war hawk and delivered on that promise. More concretely, he alone gave the orders to invade Austria, Poland, Russia and France.
Or take the Iraq War. Can you imagine Al Gore pursuing war with Iraq as revenge for 9/11 given that Iraq wasn’t related to Al Qaeda, had actually fought Al Qaeda, and didn’t have WMDs? So yeah, probably not. On the counter side, would Gore have invaded Afghanistan? Probably.
America faced a clear choice between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. America chose the President who will likely turn out to be a war hawk and no one can realistically argue otherwise. From the things Trump has said to the recklessly aggressive posture of many fellow Republicans, you can assume Trump is inclined to send America to war. And today we’re going to lay out that case.
(Would Hillary Clinton have started wars? Probably, but the flavor of war would have been “responsibility to protect”, to stop war crimes or genocide, or to prevent tragedy, than in the pursuit of the always vague “protecting America’s interest” which will now be known as “America First”.)
First, the Republican party is a war hawk party.
Sorry, but it is, and we’re tired of pretending that it isn’t. The Republican convention was filled with invective against ISIS. And the Republican party has been opposing the Iran Deal since Obama signed it. Together, ISIS and Iran represent the evils of the world, for some reason. (Along with helping doses of insulting Barack Obama.)
As an example, take Senator Tom Cotton. Cotton fascinates me (Michael C) because we were both in the U.S. Army, both led platoons, and both are clearly interested in politics. From there we both went completely different directions. Take the time Cotton recommended punishing innocent civilians over Iran sanctions:
”Once in the House, Cotton’s anti-Iran advocacy showed a mean streak. When, in 2013, a new Iran sanctions bill came before the lower chamber, Cotton introduced an amendment that would “automatically” punish family members of sanctions violators. “There would be no investigation,” Cotton explained during the mark-up. “It’d be very hard to demonstrate and investigate to conclusive proof.” Cotton wanted to punish innocent people; he called it “corruption of blood,” and extended the category to include “parents, children, aunts, uncles, nephews, nieces, grandparents, great grandparents, grandkids, great grandkids.”
Tom Cotton is just one example of hawkish-ness in the Republican party. They have many vocal leaders in Congress who want an enemy for America to fight, from Iran to ISIS to Russia to North Korea to new countries we haven’t even thought of yet. Our posts from the Republican primary started on this topic and it’s one we’ll return keep hitting.
Second, Donald Trump is expanding the military.
Why not “rebuild?” our military as Donald Trump says? Because you can’t fix what isn’t broken and you can’t rebuild something that is already built. The U.S. military is the greatest fighting force on the planet, and that’s that.
But he can make it even greater-er. Lats night, he proposed a budget increase of $18 billion (that he is misleading spinning as a $54 billion upgrade). He can increase the number of jets (and people flying them). He can increase the number of brigades (even though he should increase the number of battalions per brigade first, but the former is sexier). He can increase the number of boats in the sea. And our elite special operations units of uber-elite hyper-special forces of elite SOCOM? He can just give them tons of money they can stack in piles and burn. (Though if we gave stacks of money to SOCOM under orders to burn it, some of those elite special operators would totally steal it.)
If all you have is a giant military, every global problem looks like a war. Forward positioning so many troops so close to so many hot spots just increases the odds we send them to a war zone. And a huge upgraded military will beg to be used. Before World War I, each side started building up troops and navies. Before Germany started World War II, it had to build up its military. A huge Cold War military got America drawn into Vietnam and Russia drawn into Afghanistan. This is just what happens.
Third, Donald Trump has said he will use force to solve problems.
Repeatedly, in debates and during his RNC acceptance speech, Donald Trump vowed he would wipe ISIS off the face of the Earth. That will require force. He’s also said he’d bomb women and children if needed. He vowed to tear up the Iran deal, and the likely consequence will be war.
We should take him at his word. Trump sees force as a solution to his problems.
Fourth, Donald Trump is temperamentally suited to be a war-hawk.
We’ve seen him lose his temper via Twitter and news reports say he also lost his temper on a diplomatic phone call to Australia, a staunch ally. He will get drawn into potential conflicts with countries like Iran or, God forbid, China because he values his own personal reputation more than our country. We saw this after the election when Trump spent more time concerned with the size of his inauguration crowds than appointing cabinet officials. Or when he delivers speeches railing on the media rather than make an Affordable Care Act replacement plan.
Hillary Clinton easily got under his skin during three debates. It didn’t work, but she poked the bear and he roared. Unlike Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush or Obama, all men who could calmly assess threats and makes the right strategic decisions, Trump responds to every perceived slight. Why would we think he won’t do this on the global stage?
What can we say from all the evidence? Donald Trump is temperamentally suited to be a war hawk president. Whether he uses his power to start wars--or whether his administration is competent enough to pull it off--remains to be seen.